Rankings

College Football Schedules, and constant fight on who has a harder schedule, division, yada, yada, yada.

This whole season I have been saying how weak Boise States schedule was (I actually hate Boise State, the only thing I like about them is that Blount punched number 94 at the end of the game in 2009). In the few arguments I would into with people about that they would say I have no actual information to back me up. Well I do now, Jeff Sagarin’s NCAA football rankings.

Based on Jeff Sagarin’s rankings Boise State had the 70th hardest schedule out of 245 college football teams, Oregon State had the number one hardest schedule and Washington had 2nd.

HAHA! F YOU Boise State!

What he says the schedule ratings represent:

“what the rating would have to be for a hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50% of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games that it has played so far.  The schedule difficulty of each given game takes into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN 50% conference ratings.”

 

Okay I get that…ish.

Below is a graph of how the Pac-10, most of the top ten and some randoms.

So what does this mean for Oregon?

Oregon was ranked 19 compared to Auburn at 15. Also Auburn has bet two top ten teams when Oregon has only beaten one.

Sagarin has Oregon ranked as number one. This ranking process is “synthesis of the two diametrical opposites, Elo Chess and Pure Points ‘Predictor’” and Auburn is ranked at 3, behind Stanford (HOLLA PAC-10!).

His rankings also helps one understand who has the best chance of winning by “simply compare the ratings of the teams in question and allow an additional three points for the home team”.

Oregon has a ranking score 96.68 and Boise State 94.47 neither are at home, but the game is in a Pac-10 state, we will give Oregon an extra point. Even though the do not need it.

So Oregon will win.

 

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